With the free agency flames beginning to burn out, one of the top names that have been listed open for trade is Vegas Golden Knights forward Nikita Gusev.
Nikita Gusev is a restricted free agent that has played the last decade in the KHL. His rights were traded in the Vegas Expansion Draft from Tampa Bay to Vegas in order for the Golden Knights to select veteran defenseman Jason Garrison over younger names in Yanni Gourde, Andrej Sustr, and Jake Dotchin.
In hindsight, Tampa would have much rather kept his rights than allowed someone like Dotchin to leave. Since the expansion draft, Gusev has been the top goalscorer at the World Championships, made it to the KHL All-Star Game twice, led the KHL in assists in back to back seasons, and won the MVP for the KHL in 2018.
Vegas has struggled to get the 26-year-old winger away from the KHL since acquiring his rights. Their situation with Vadim Shipachyov blew up in their faces and caused him to defect back to Russia after just three games, in which Shipachyov scored just one goal.
That situation has caused a lot of panic amongst Gusev’s camp in talks of bringing him over to the NHL. After negotiations went sour in trying to give Gusev a new deal, GM George McPhee announced he would be exploring offers for the winger.
Normally in these RFA situations, Vegas would have the upper hand. Offer sheeting RFAs comes very, very rarely, despite Montreal offer sheeting Carolina Hurricanes forward Sebastian Aho on July 1st, which Carolina promptly matched shortly after.
Right now, however, the situation is very different. Vegas are actually below the salary cap limit right now. After giving out hefty extensions to Alex Tuch, Mark Stone, and William Karlsson, Vegas were below the cap space after extending Karlsson two weeks ago.
To put it into reference, Vegas are locked into an astounding eleven contracts over $4.75 million AAV, including the 35-year-old IR victim David Clarkson, who was taken from Columbus with their 2017 first-round and 2019 second-round picks attached in exchange for expansion draft considerations. Clarkson is under a $5.25 million dollar cap hit until next season.
Outside of Clarkson, all 11 of the larger Vegas contracts reach beyond next summer. Stone, Karlsson, Tuch, and Jonathan Marchessault all expire in 2027, Max Pacioretty’s $7 million cap hit stretches until 2023, Marc-Andre Fleury’s $7 million deal expires in 2022, and Nate Schmidt and Shea Theodore’s $5 million-plus contracts expire in 2025.
This has led to Vegas shedding some of their better players to make room for their expiring contracts. Center Erik Haula and defenseman Colin Miller have both been traded from Vegas within the last week to Carolina and Buffalo, respectively.
Even with that, Vegas are below the cap and still have to reach new deals for backup goaltender Malcolm Subban. Fleury and Subban are the last remaining goalies on the roster after Maxime Lagace signed a one-year deal with Boston on July 1st, and his contract is needed much more than Gusev, especially with Fleury entering his mid-thirties.
Gusev’s camp officially announced that the winger has a pretty set demand for a contract: two years at a $4 million salary.
Considering veteran forwards Joe Pavelski and Wayne Simmonds got $7 million and $5 million on July 1st, this contract is a dream deal for almost any NHL team.
So now, the hunt begins for Gusev. Almost every NHL team has been linked to him, with New Jersey, New York Islanders, Columbus, and Detroit leading the charge for the Russian.
The Islanders, Blue Jackets, and Panthers all missed on elder Russian Artemi Panarin in free agency, so logically Gusev would be a decent consolation prize.
Someone who would entice Gusev is Cats forward Evgenii Dadonov. Dadonov played with Gusev for the KHL’s St. Petersburg SKA in the 2016-17 season. The duo combined for 54 goals and 83 assists that season before Dadonov’s departure to South Florida.
However, the ball is still in Vegas’ court over who gets Gusev. Florida still has over $5 million in cap space, so taking on one of Vegas’ hefty contracts to help them re-sign Subban would be ideal. The most likely contract for the Panthers to take on is Cody Eakin.
Eakin is very similar to Colton Sceviour, a serviceable bottom-six man who is great for any team’s penalty kill, but heavily overpaid. At a $3.85 million cap hit that expires next season, Vegas could really use getting that money off their hands.
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For both Eakin and Gusev, however, there’s going to need to be some big pieces given up. Frank Vatrano might be one of the main pieces around a possible trade.
Vatrano is coming off a career-high season at a cheap $2.53M cap hit, which is very affordable for a team like Vegas to have a good scorer.
Another potential piece could be Mike Hoffman. His contract, which is an average pay of $5.2 million, expires at the end of the season, which means Vegas would have a fair amount of cap flexibility next summer, depending on any moves they make during the next 13 months.
The Panthers own all of their draft picks other than their fifth and six-round picks in 2020. This means a lot, as draft picks are able to entice Vegas with value other than players.
A future second shouldn’t be too hard for Florida to give up if they believe Gusev helps them take the next step as a playoff contender.
Overall, I think the Panthers should at least explore moving for Gusev as solace for missing on Panarin. Even still, Gusev is less money and younger than Panarin, and he could be a solid player to put in the top six.