Florida Panthers defenseman Seth Jones scored his third goal of the season on Wednesday against his former team, the Chicago Blackhawks. The former first-round pick is off to the hottest start of his career with 19 points in 16 games to rank fourth among NHL defensemen in scoring. Not only did he break the franchise record for most points in October, with 18, but he is also currently on pace for 100 points, which would shatter his current career-high of 57. Considering how valuable Jones’ offensive production has been to the Panthers' early successes, could his record-breaking start put him in contention for his first Norris Trophy?
Being a top-scoring defenseman doesn’t guarantee a Norris Trophy win
For fun, we sifted through the statistics for each Norris Trophy winner in the salary cap era, which began in 2005-06. Surprisingly, 61.9% of winners did not finish first in scoring among defensemen, with the largest group (42.9%) finishing second among their peers. Only 38.1% of Norris Trophy winners were the position’s top scorers; two players won the award ranking fifth, while one ranked 10th and another 12th.
Currently, Jones is chasing Evan Bouchard, who is the presumptive favorite to win the award after one of the wildest months ever. In only 16 games, he has 28 points and is plus-23 on a stacked Edmonton Oilers team with Connor McDavid, who is on pace for 210 points.
Next in line is soon-to-be free agent Quinn Hughes, who won the award just two seasons ago. He’s got 22 points in 17 games, while helping the Minnesota Wild to the top of the Central Division. Finally, Jones is tied with Mikhail Sergachev (Utah Mammoth) and Adam Fox (New York Rangers) with 19 points in 16 games.
Panthers don’t survive October without Jones’ offensive contributions
Bouchard has scored some big goals for the Oilers this year, but there’s an argument that the team would still be dominant with two of the best players in the lineup. Meanwhile, Minnesota is finally showing signs of being a contender, in part because Hughes is helping out on the offense and Kirill Kaprizov is off to the best start of his career. Both Utah and New York are defying expectations at this point, and they owe some credit to both Sergachev and Fox.
Down in Florida, the Panthers survived October and key injuries to Aleksander Barkov and Brad Marchand. They also made it through early-season struggles, including no points from Brady Tkachuk for five games and little to no secondary scoring through the first two weeks of the season.
Things have balanced out now that the calendar has flipped to November and the Cats are in the thick of a tight playoff race. There are only nine NHL defensemen with a double-digit plus-minus rating, with Jones sitting at plus-3. Although he's among the league's top-scoring defensemen, his plus-minus rating isn't nearly as impressive as some of his competitors. It will take a lot to get to double digits or to reach Bouchard’s total.
Although Jones may not match Bouchard's remarkable plus-minus rating, his value to Florida goes beyond that statistic. If he continues producing offensively while handling difficult defensive assignments, he'll have an opportunity to strengthen his case as one of the NHL's most complete defensemen.
Winning the Norris Trophy means you are the best defenseman in the league, not necessarily the best scoring defenseman. If Jones can continue on his torrid pace and stay with Bouchard and Hughes in the race, and the Panthers secure a playoff spot, whether early or through a last-minute wild-card push, that could go a long way toward earning him Norris Trophy votes. If Bouchard and the Oilers run away with the standings, voters will have to decide how much of his success comes from his individual performance and how much is influenced by playing on one of the NHL's most talented teams.
Jones has an outside chance of finishing in the top three in Norris Trophy voting, which would surpass his previous best of fourth place in 2017-18. Either way, if the Panthers are going to remain Stanley Cup contenders, Jones will have to continue playing a leading role as one of the team's most important offensive contributors.
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