Panthers and Lightning first round playoff preview

The Stanley Cup playoffs are finally upon us. After a long regular season full of drama and intrigue, the postseason promises to bring more of the same. The Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars matchup will be the Mikko Rantanen saga. Meanwhile, the Battle of Ontario between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators will ignite and divide Canadian hockey fans.

In my view, the marquee series of the first round isn’t the Battle of Ontario, but the Battle of Florida. Finishing in the second and third seeds in the Atlantic Division set the Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers on this collision course. It has all the potential to be the hardest-fought and most physical series of the playoffs. 

The defending Stanley Cup champs are still favored to repeat this season. However, they may face their most formidable challenge first.

Which team has the advantage?

Fans and analysts alike have been divided on which Sunshine State squad is the likely victor. The teams split their regular season matchups, each with a 2-2-0 record. Both teams are plenty of strengths and few weaknesses. Breaking down the teams by position could give a clearer picture of who holds the edge.

Forwards: Advantage Lightning

Tampa has been an offensive juggernaut this season. They are the number one team in goals scored with 292 (3.54 per game). They are also in the top five for power play percentage (25.86%), and power play goals (60).

Looking at the points leaders for both squads, the Bolts have four of the top five, with Sam Reinhart being the lone Panther with 81 points. Nikita Kucherov earned himself a second consecutive Art Ross trophy with 121 points this year. Branden Hagel, Braden Point, and Jake Guentzel all tallied at least 80 points each. 

Several key players in Florida’s forward group have had less-than-stellar numbers this season. Carter Verhaeghe has had consistency issues. Matthew Tkachuk has been on LTIR since the Four Nations break. Brad Marchand has only been with the team since the trade deadline. The Panthers still finished a respectable 15th in goals scored and 9th in power-play goals. Still, the forward advantage has to go to Tampa. 

Defensemen: Advantage Florida

Both teams have had solid defensive numbers this season. The Panthers allowed just six fewer goals (223) than the Lightning (229). Both teams have a top-10 penalty kill as well, with Tampa (81.55%) holding the slight edge over Florida (80.74%).

I give the Panthers the defensive edge, but with a caveat. That advantage doesn’t start until game three when Aaron Ekblad returns from his 20-game suspension. Seth Jones has proved to be a solid acquisition for Bill Zito at the deadline. He has stepped in and provided significant minutes in Ekblad’s absence. Ekblad was having a great season before failing a random drug test for PEDs. If he can regain that form upon his return, Florida’s defense will look much different with both he and Jones. 

Goaltending: Even

Andrei Vasilevskiy and Sergei Bobrovsky are both elite. Both have proven themselves in the postseason, both have won a Vezina Trophy, and both have now won Stanley Cups. Vasilevskiy has better stats this season. A .921 save percentage with a 2.18 goals allowed average compared to Bob’s .905 SV% and 2.44 GAA. 

Vasilevskiy also played in more games and over 500 more minutes for the year. The Panthers have been able to utilize Vitek Vanecek down the stretch to give Bobrovsky some rest. Vasilevskiy could be more prone to fatigue if the series goes seven games.

At the end of the day, goaltenders are the most challenging position to predict, but both of these goalies are among the best in the world. 

My pick: Florida wins in seven games

Whether the fanbases of the remaining 30 NHL teams want to admit it, the road to the Stanley Cup runs through the state of Florida. One of these two teams has made it to the Stanley Cup Finals for five straight seasons, and they have won three Cups during that span. Whichever team survives this series could be the odds-on favorite to win the Eastern Conference and keep that streak alive. 

Much of the Panthers' chances will depend on the health of Matthew Tkachuk and others. The Cats have unapologetically rested key players down the stretch. They have prioritized the team’s health over home-ice advantage. Now will be the time to see if that strategy pays off.

It will be crucial for the Cats to split the first two games in Tampa. If they can come home for game three with 1-1 series tie, they will be in good shape to take the series. Aaron Ekblad’s return in game three should provide a defensive boost. I see this series going seven games either way. If Florida’s most important players are in top form, there is no reason to think they can’t best the Lightning for the second-straight season. 

The battle of Florida begins on Tuesday, April 22nd, at Amalie Arena. Puck drop is set for 8:30 PM Eastern.