Florida Panthers: What is Contributing to their Defensive Woes, and How it Can be Fixed?

By the week of Thanksgiving, if a team has given up the second-most goals in the NHL, they’re normally on their way to getting more lottery balls than a playoff spot.

This year’s Florida Panthers, while giving up the second-most goals in the league, are on course for a playoff spot. Some of that has to do with a lethal offense, a wonderful power play, and a 5-6-2 record when trailing after two periods, which is remarkable. But a trend like this can only last for so long.

Recently, we explored Sergei Bobrovsky’s struggles as part of the defensive woes, but it’s now time to look at other explanations for why the Panthers defense is still regressing after the worst defensive season in Panthers history. There are glaring holes on the blue line that must be filled, and filled fast, to stem this tide.

Only two of the Panthers’ seven usual defensemen have a positive xG differential, and only four have a positive Corsi differential. One of the defensemen who is positive in both metrics is MacKenzie Weegar, and since he went out injured, the Panthers defense has taken a notable dive down. He may be playing above his head, but when one injury can derail the defense group to this degree, depth becomes a major question mark.

Weegar’s presence balances out the minutes Joel Quenneville and Mike Kitchen allot to their defensemen. It allows them to “shelter” Keith Yandle at even strength, give Aaron Ekblad a more stable partner which amplifies his strengths, and more notably, keeps either Josh Brown or Mark Pysyk out of the lineup. Both Brown and Pysyk have been serious liabilities on the back end, especially Pysyk, who is having his worst season as a Panther yet.

Here are two examples of the two together from the Buffalo game, and how their mistakes end up being amplified:

This goal came after multiple failed attempts to clear the zone, starting from Brown and Pysyk not being strong enough on the puck. They stand still as Eichel controls the puck, failing to challenge him when he begins to make his move to the bottom of the faceoff circle. When forwards are tired, they need to stand up to support them in order to put out fires, and neither of them did.

Here is the second Buffalo goal:

The first mistake comes with an over-aggressive Brown poke-check along the wall, leaving him out of position. This forces Pysyk to overcompensate without support, meaning he’s out of position and when Brown gets back in the play, he’s not fast enough to overcome the cascade of mistakes.

These are just two examples of how these two have become major issues on the blue line, not just together but especially apart. Brown has been alright this season in shot suppression but doesn’t offer the balance to a pair that Weegar, Stralman or even Yandle do because he does not move the puck smoothly out of the zone on a consistent basis, especially under pressure. And Pysyk’s puck-moving abilities are notably not what the Panthers thought they’d be when they acquired him.

Florida’s biggest concern could easily be Mike Matheson, who after a horrific 2018-19 season, has not shaken off his persistent woes and problems.

On this goal, Matheson continues to back into his own zone towards his own goal, leaving the wide forward, Conor Sheary, to Brian Boyle. Boyle can’t keep up with him, and Matheson isn’t strong enough to outmuscle Skinner who gets to the front of the net. Not only is his defensive game still not where it needs to be, his offensive numbers, his major selling point, aren’t there either.

Even with Weegar in the lineup, there are at least two defensemen in Florida’s lineup that become liabilities and players that other coaches scheme to target, and in the postseason, those decisions become the difference between winning and losing a series.

How can Dale Tallon and Joel Quenneville address these concerns, as after a quarter of the way through the season, the underlying issues from last season are still present defensively? The most immediate option would be to play Riley Stillman. While he struggled mightily in his first game of the season in Calgary, in recent games he’s rebounded solidly. While he offers little offensively, he moves the puck well, has good positioning and situational awareness which should settle down the last two defensive pairs. He hasn’t had the best season in Springfield but is clearly someone the organization is high on.

If not Stillman, how about Brady Keeper or even Ethan Prow and Tommy Cross? They might not be NHL ready, but the organization must see what they have in them while the season is still young enough that they can afford a game or two where these players show what they’re capable of.

Their most pressing trade deadline need will be a left-shot defenseman, especially someone who can add balance to the back end of their lineup. Handedness has never been a major concern, especially since Weegar has played so well on his off-hand this year, but that can only last for so long. What might it take to get one of Carolina’s good left-shot D in a trade? What might it take to get Oliver Kylington, the Calgary D who has been in trade rumors recently? The Panthers need to explore these options urgently because they only have so much cushion on teams like Tampa and Toronto in the Atlantic, who are turning their seasons around fast. Other options will become available as the trade deadline nears, but the Panthers more and more need to get at least one of them.

After a quarter of the season, it’s clear the Panthers’ defensive woes have not been addressed enough, to the point where they cannot overcome them for much longer. There are internal options that can be explored before bringing in outside help, and something must be done before it costs the Panthers too many points in the standings.

There is ample evidence to suggest what the problems are defensively, but there might not be ample time to fix them anymore.