Florida Panthers: 2019 NHL Draft Prospect Forward Rankings

The rankings I’ve done in the past for the defunct Whyhockey site tended to skew away from the consensus. But this year, this year is more divergent than most.

That is a little bit by accident — a bias towards European players in a mainly North American focused scouting community usually puts you behind the popular opinion.

A little bit by choice —  a conscious eye for unique and under-scouted-or-hyped prospects. The benefit to you is, this is just another new opinion to consider. My bias thoughts and rankings for the draft you can find educational or sensational or even wasteful.

2019 is an average depth, average talent draft class — not that there is anything wrong with that. You have a clear-cut franchise type player at #1, Kaapo Kakko, with a solid challenger in Jack Hughes.

The last handful of draft classes showed the generational shift in skating technique and speed. That trend continues this year with an emphasis on edge work and transition rather than just blazing speed.

This year I noticed a lot of players whose main skill is IQ — players with quick game processing ability, almost supernatural awareness and vision, and using their skillset in the best way to hide any limitations, or be effective when not on the scoresheet.

It’s perfectly reasonable to bump players up a tier based on some form or display of smarts. It’s a rough year for picking centers and NHL-ready-ish players, so teams should jump early if that position is a priority.

The unfortunate shortage of centers is buoyed by the proportional abundance in wingers.

Prospects with professional league experience, expected professional league play next season (AHL, Europe), or a mature and NHL-ready style of game will get preference.

In an average draft, the fewer issues transitioning to the NHL and the potential for more NHL games played, the more likely I am to ‘hit’ on a pick.

Minor junior league players may get dragged down my rankings list by this but that is an acceptable compromise. Every team and scout is rushing to pick USHL players this year, so don’t fret about sitting that out. Value will be had where the attention is not.

The US Development Program is an onion with layers of context to peel back and consider. This year’s layers are: 1). their best players sticking around the program when in past years they would have transitioned to college or CHL in their draft year; 2). an insane amount of talent disparity between USDP and their competition in minor junior; and 3). playing a heavy exhibition game schedule. How much is air being pumped into their proverbial tires?

When in a pinch pass on American (and even Canadian) players and go Russian. Russians have the clear-cut strongest horde of prospects through the rounds and the positions.

And with the focus on USDP and usual forgetting or ignoring of Russians, you will have a better talent pool to pull from at any spot in any context going Russian. There are also enough Russians in the CHL and USHL, that you can find one outside KHL control if that’s your issue.

There are 22 forwards I consider skilled enough for first-round consideration. Meaning, they have the ability to drive a top-six line at their position.

That number of first round forwards isn’t outside my average year range. Where the forwards dip below average is in centers.

The first two picks, in my opinion, may not be centers, and there is a string of wingers I prefer in the forward rankings. I don’t see the amount of top-nine NHL centers that a lot of other scouting outlets see. It’s common for forwards to be drafted as a center and barely play a game there in the NHL (Simon Gagne). It’s hard to gauge position at that age.

Rankings inside the position tiers are pretty interchangeable. A simple preference to playing style, fit, or team need could easily change the order. However, I went with my gut: who I would pick first; and ranked them inside their tiers. The order of Gutik, Wahlgren, Sheshin, Poulin are momentary biases that I can easily forecast changing in a year’s time.

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There won’t be many second-year eligibles or over-agers on this list. Samuel Fagemo is a highly rated prospect and definitely meets my general player profile — but every year I try to stick to first-year eligibles to help me cover more ground and at the end of the year, I see more prospects.

It also makes it more likely people who read my stuff and come away with one more new prospect or perspective. Any that survived were left because they are a goalie, or of an overly fond attachment I couldn’t break, even for my own rules.

Alex Newhook won’t be on this list either. The hype and scout’s projections around him never really made sense to me through my viewings. With talk of him going in the top 10, there really seemed to be no point to rank him 43rd best forward in the draft.

I’d really have no intentions of drafting the player, unlike say Bobby Brink who while I have ranked much lower than where he will realistically go, I would be willing to select the player, so he stays on the list.

Format:

Rank #. First Last / Position / Hand / Birth Month Year / Team / League

For the purposes of this piece, I will be ranking *only* forwards in a tier-class list. Let’s begin!

Tier A – Best Forward on Team at Position (LW, C, RW)

1. Kaapo Kakko / RW, C / L / FEB 01 / TPS / Liiga

Kakko is an early choice for the Calder next year. Kakko not only broke Barkov’s goal record in Liiga for a draft-eligible player but was a driving force behind Finland winning multiple gold medals in junior and men’s championships.

Kakko is the only prospect guaranteed to be NHL ready in a few months. Kakko uses his skating and size to protect the puck and get to the hard areas.

He has Auston Matthews-style creativity and the way he gets to the net for scoring chances overwhelm and surprise defenders. An appealing mix of power and finesse.

Kakko even impressed under center when given some time there. His intelligence and versatility are usually overlooked because the physical tool set shines bright.

2. Jack Hughes / C, LW / L / MAY 01 / USDP / USHL

Hughes also put up historical numbers compared to some of the USPD’s best success stories. Hughes does everything through his skating, a statement that seems obvious in hockey but nevertheless.

Hughes buys time swinging around the offensive zone hoping to open up passing lanes just enough. On breakouts, Hughes gets his team out of the zone pretty effortlessly just by winding up, and any sign of trouble he can spin back the other way and keep going.

Soft hands and patient vision highlight his playmaking attacking style. There’s a lot of commonality in Jonathan Drouin’s draft year and Hughes, in my eyes.

Both prospects were highly regarded in my rankings but come with worries about moving over to the wing with how much of their production comes from their ability to prolong every possession skating circles around the zone, which isn’t normal for the NHL.

Tier B – Likely Top 6 Forward

3. Kirby Dach / C / R / JAN 01 / Saskatoon / WHL

The best true center in the draft, Dach also has the advantage of being Canadian, 6’4”, and right-handed. While that only impacts my decision a tad, most NHL scouts will be circling the wagons. Dach’s production doesn’t jump off the page relative to some others on this list but Dach took a larger focus on defensive zone responsibilities and that could have hampered what was still over a point-per-game season.

Getzlaf comparisons may be a bit hyperbole but Dach could be a first line pivot who’s an offensively-minded playmaker, defensively responsible, and who plays both special teams. His underrated asset is his decision-making. He showed more growth in that area than the centers below him.

4. Vasili Podkolzin / RW / L / JUN 01 / SKA 1946 St. Petersburg / MHL

Dropped a spot at the end of the year to Dach based on position and minor skating flaws that can be worked out. Most of the forwards will take two or more seasons to get to the NHL in my opinion, so his KHL contract is not a factor outside the first two picks. Podkolzin tilts the ice. Once he has the puck, it’s tough to get it off him. A mix of the intelligence and aggressive attacking pace my prospect profile prioritizes. More of a goal scorer than passer, Podkolzin still has the potential to pick up more apples and make up for any lack in production.

5. Arthur Kaliyev / LW / L / JUN 01 / Hamilton / OHL

The trend to have Kaliyev outside the top 15 in rankings perplexes me. 51 goals and 51 assists in the CHL is no joke, and players who have done less with less physical tools have been ranked higher in better draft years. Kaliyev’s shot is quick and hard, a heat-seeking missile. He creates a lot of rebound chances off any saves goalies do make but his high assist total isn’t due to that.

Kaliyev definitely fancies himself a playmaker as well and he’s shown the ability to find east-west seams on the power play and off the rush at a pretty high level. What scouts write off as being disinterested, I see as Kaliyev trying to get lost in the crowd and pounce. It’s what high-end scorers do.

6. Dylan Cozens / C, RW / R / FEB 01 / Lethbridge / WHL

The first thing that stood out to me about Cozens was how dogged on the puck he was. The second was how quickly his game was starting to take shape, with more room to grow. He’s as much a winger as a center, a finisher as a creator. Cozens may be the most moldable potential center in the first round. Cozens was almost a point-per-game player last season in the WHL, and this season rounded out his game and added to the offense — a big reason he beats out Turcotte.

7. Alex Turcotte / C / L / FEB 01 / USDP / USHL

Turcotte had an injury or two and mono this year but fought through it to have good production in a shortened year. There is the USDP factor around that high production, of course. He has a good skillset even if he tends to resort to a meat and potatoes 200-foot game.

He’s a good playmaker and his ability to find his teammates quickly is backed up by his breaking to the net. Move the puck, cut through the middle and get to the net is a good way to summarize his game. He has good finishing ability and hand-eye in front when he gets there.

He isn’t big but plays it. He isn’t small either. Hopefully, the injuries stay away to make his style successful in the NHL.

8. Matthew Boldy / LW / L / APR 01 / USDP / USHL

Boldy was the best all-around USDP player this year after Hughes. Even if others have more ceiling, Boldy has a pro-ready game and a high chance of being useful anywhere in an NHL lineup. He still has skills, he isn’t just utilitarian. Backhand protection and passing is among the best in the class but his shot is his best quality. He can win battles and doesn’t run out of position.

9. Peyton Krebs / C, LW / L / JAN 01 / Kootenay / WHL 

Krebs has elite decision-making and compete, drawing Mike Richards comparisons. He falls to the bottom of this tier due to an Achilles injury right before the draft. Very Richards-esque. He played on the worst WHL team and was the leader of the team. He also captained Canada at U18 WC. Krebs impact on the game and on his team speaks to why he can be a top-six forward in the NHL.

Tier C – First Round Skilled Forwards, Top 6 Potential

10. Nils Hoglander / LW / L / DEC 00 / Rogle / SHL 

Size will drop Hoglander back on most lists but he proved he could produce at the professional level. He’s one of the most creative forwards in the draft. Long stick helps him avoid physical play unless necessary, also allows him to make up on the defensive end when cheating for offense. Pro level shot, passes hard, and has good vision but not always clean passes.

11. Patrik Puistola / LW / L / JAN 01 / LeKi / Mestis

Puistola is a Tappara player (a favorite drafting spot for me) on loan to a second league Finnish pro team. The winger has slick hands and edges and an NHL level shot. The tools are high-end but his loan was warranted, as he’s still a bit raw. I see a lot of positive Jussi Jokinen traits in Puistola. Good down low, and in tight, you can see him winning a lot of 1-on-1s and battles.

12. Pavel Dorofeyev / W / L / OCT 00 / Metallurg / KHL

Dorofeyev is a winger who likes to control the pace and slow down plays with changes of direction. He can get a bit tunnel-ed vision when in goal scorer mode, but he looks to involve his teammates mostly. His shot is good but needs a quicker release. Good mechanics but more pace in most of his game would help.

13. Cole Caufield / RW / R / JAN 01 / USDP / USHL

One of the best shots in the draft and 72 goals through all play this season (though USDP effect). Caufield’s shot is like Pablo Sanchez in BackyardBaseball with the power up bats.

Despite his size, despite no defensive potential, despite having shockingly low assist totals considering who his linemates were, I’d take him in the middle of the first round if I needed a goal scorer. I have more concerns about his passing and skating than most, but I am willing to buy some of the hype (maybe because of Debrincat).

14. Philip Tomasino / C / R / JUL 01 / Niagara / OHL

The secret is out on one of the youngest centers in the draft who excelled producing 5v5 in the OHL. Tomasino is the typical F3 center (playing as the third forward high in the zone) who has good hands, vision, and can finish plays with hard shots from mid-range. His skating is above average and while he isn’t big, he isn’t afraid to be in either crease digging.

15. Raphael Lavoie / RW,C / R / SEP 00 / Halifax / QMJHL

Moosehead forwards typically are electric, push the pace, and producers. Lavoie finished the season on an absolute tear having the best draft-eligible postseason (even over Byram). Lavoie is on the older end of the class, and physically mature, so he may be closer to NHL ready than those in front of him (especially if he plays on the wing). At times I wonder if it’s more heart than brains but Lavoie is one of the last forwards on this list who have game breaking upside.

16. Ryan Suzuki / C / L / MAY 01 / Barrie / OHL

Strong skating, hands, and vision. Suzuki’s game isn’t much different from his older brother’s game. That means he could probably score more than he does and could use some more urgency, but the playmaking and game processing is high-end and the OHL production is bankable.

17. Trevor Zegras / C / L / MAR 01 / USDP / USHL

Even inside of a tier, there is sometimes a gap. When moving prospects up and down on the list, the gap was consistently between Suzuki and Zegras. Boiling it down, after Suzuki, my confidence in the prospects reaching their potential through the rest of this tier takes a hit.

‘Zippy’ is how I often refer to Zegras in my head, and it fits his play.

Zegras is usually anticipating and jumping plays without the puck and then quickly zipping the puck to his teammates. He is a quick and accurate passer. I don’t see NHL goal scoring potential others do, with how much perimeter play he sticks to. If Zegras adds more defensive elements of his game, or more play through the middle of the ice, his value would increase.

18. Albin Grewe / RW / L / MAR 01 / Djurgardens / SuperElit, SHL

Described as a T-Rex once — he believes every puck is his and every opponent beneath him. Grewe likes to roll back and go east-west off rushes, and he can play the F3 role. He likes to survey a lot of the ice to make the most of his playmaking but I think his natural competitiveness will get his goal numbers up.

19. Maxim Cajkovic / W / R / JAN 01 / St. John / QMJHL

#1 pick in the CHL Import Draft. Cajkovic played in a similar situation as Krebs. His team relied on him for everything, and he still produced admirably. Cajkovic isn’t nearly as NHL ready, and may not drive a line but his goal-scoring skills are pretty untapped. He tended to look off teammates by year’s end, but that probably changes in a better situation.

20. Ilya Nikolayev / C / L / JUN 01 / Loko Yaroslavl / MHL

Nikolayev has been ranked anywhere from mid first to the early third round. Nikolayev is a strong center who plays through the middle of the ice, wins draws, and ended the year well.  He takes care of his end first, and let’s his wingers carry the puck. He makes simple plays mainly but flashes dekes and can play with skill. Scouts do worry about the offensive ceiling with Nikolayev.

21. Matvei Guskov / C / L / JAN 01 / London / OHL

Guskov reminds me of the recent late first-round picks who outperformed expectations the following year once they were promoted up the lineup. Josh Norris and Colin White are examples. Guskov is a smooth skater who gets around the ice effortlessly but can drift and get a little aimless. He anticipates play and finds lanes well, and is in a good development program with the Knights.

22. Simon Holmstrom / RW / L / MAY 01 / HV71 / SHL 

Holmstrom has good playmaking skills. He is creative with good hands and works well around and behind the net. He may not drive a top line but he should compliment them. He has a deceptive and heavy shot, that sometimes dips.

Tier D – Top 9 Forward Skills

23. Antti Saarela / W / L / JUN 01 / Lukko / Liiga

Saarela and Holmstrom could be flipped here probably, even across tiers. Saarela I could sell myself on if only because his brother Aleksi was one of my Whyhockey picks that took off with proper development. High-end offensive instincts and precision with the puck. He maintains possession well and has a quick release.

24. Tuukka Tieksola / RW / R / JUN 01 / Karpat / Jr. A

A sub-six-foot playmaking winger. Common in this draft but TT’s stats showed he dominated creating shots for his teammates consistently. Should transition well to Karpat pro next year. He reads the pace of play very well and manipulates it to create his own seams. Smooth hands and a solid finisher in his own right who should shoot more as he matures.

25. Arseni Gritsyuk / LW / L / MAR 01 / Omskie / MHL

The last name is a hockey dream, and even kinda describes the prospect’s playing style. Gritsyuk has good pace and handles with a nose for the net and a strong stick. May not be a high IQ player but he has good instincts, aggressiveness, and athleticism.

26. Yegor Spiridonov / C / R / JAN 01 / Magnitogorsk / MHL

Most of the plays he made were eclipsed by his linemates (Sheshin and Dorofeyev) but he is the reason they ticked most games. He likes to be in the middle of the play and work give-and-goes to his wingers, throwing picks with his body. Spiridonov ended the year producing more and showcasing good hands in tight and around the crease. He should be given the talent to play within the KHL next year. German Rubtsov-esque.

27. Karl Henriksson / C / L / FEB 01 / Frolunda / SuperElit

Henriksson is a low-risk center prospect (if you don’t look at his size). He wins draws, plays through the middle of the ice, and has a strong shot. He’s active and noticeable in good ways every shift and helps out his wingers and defenders. He has value if you don’t think the offense translates. He backchecks, kills penalties, and he thinks the game well.

28. Nathan Legare / RW / R / JAN 01 / Baie-Comeau / QMJHL

Legare racked up 45 goals on a good offensive team this year. He’s an exciting player with a low center of gravity and a big shot. He is a counter strike styled scorer who likes to be the high forward in the zone. He could work on his vision a bit more, especially since he took more draws by the end of the year and could be a potential center.

29. Yegor Serdyuk / RW / L / JUN 01 / Victoriaville / QMJHL

“Psyduck” as I like to call him. The undersized rookie doesn’t look like much but Serdyuk finds himself in the right spot enough to be on the All-Rookie Team, having the most goals and points by a rookie. He creates his own seams on the PP with movement. 5v5 he doesn’t hold onto the puck as much as you’d expect. He gets it, he does something with it. On and off the tape. He would be a tier higher if he could dominate more shifts.

30. Henri Nikkanen / C / L / APR 01 / Jukurit / Liiga, Jr. A

Didn’t play 15 games for one team this year, but a few handful of games for a few teams and leagues. At his age group, he is a defensively strong, playmaking top-six C. His skating stride and the way he carries himself gives him more power and speed than you’d think. I don’t knock him as much as others there. The only concern is offensive potential: is the creativity there to score in the hardest league? It’s really hard for me to tell. In his age group, his playmaking is high-end enough but his shot and finishing remain to be seen. Being a true C over 6’2″ is a bump in value this draft.

31. Alex Beaucage / W / R / JUL 01 / Rouyn-Noranda / QMJHL

Another big paddler, push the pace guy from the Q like Legare. On the young side for the draft which gives him a higher ceiling. An accurate shot that doesn’t take too long to get off. Good skating mechanisms, and a real smooth set of hands even if the dangles aren’t there and it’s more push, pulls, drags with the puck.

32. Leevi Aaltonen / LW / L / JAN 01 / KalPa / Jr. A

A play driving, small winger with a longer stick and great passing and handles. I like his pace and creativity and think he has better team play and decision-making than some other similar prospects on and off this list. He has good skating and plays with emotion. A reason he’s at the bottom of this tier is this type of winger is a common commodity this draft.

Tier E – Top 9 Skills but a lot of Question Marks

33. Aku Raty/ RW / R / JUL 01 / Karpat / Jr. A 

His 2021 eligible brother may already be better but… he seems to have the possibilities of being a useful Swiss army knife in the NHL down the line. Raty has enough sense and skills to be helpful in the offensive zone and is competitive in the defense zone. Nothing really special, he just does everything well enough.

34. Dmitri Sheshin / LW / R / MAY 01 / Magnitogorsk / MHL

A good set of hands and hunger around the net. Bit small, so he picks his engagements carefully but can get lost in coverage. He’s a soft touch passer off the rush, and a sit in the home plate and wait for his chance in the zone type of guy.

35. Brayden Tracey / LW / L / MAY 01/ Moose Jaw / WHL

He moves around the ice like a Tkachuk. I have dinged that skating as too slow and that style of play too on the wall to work in NHL but maybe it’s not? The reason he isn’t getting the love you’d expect is noticeable after a few games. He’s on a good team, living off the PP. His skillset is good, not great. No real unique selling point.

36. Daniil Gutik / LW / R / AUG 01 / Loko Yaroslavl / MHL

Absolute flier to take, from what I have seen. A lot of tools in Gutik’s tool kit but never see them all together longer than a shift or two. Good at freestyling off broken plays and has creative bursts. Poor man’s Denisenko without the grit?

37. Max Wahlgren / C / L / MAY 01 / MODO / SuperElit

I like his defensive game, he makes the simple play. Above average skills and solid finishing ability. Picks up bad passes and pucks off boards well. I like his ability to beat players one on one when given the chance. Another year with Modo though and he could be looking like a steal by next year. My bias isn’t gone here, it’s just hoping it all comes together for him.

38. Nicholas Robertson / LW, C / L / SEP 01 / Peterborough / OHL

A quick-to-the-net winger who can use speed and hands to get around defenders. I like his knack for find openings and the right timing. Not sure of his potential off the puck but he was a PPG player and showed well in big games. Young for draft class.

39. Danil Bashkirov / C / L / MAY 01 / Tolpar Ufa / MHL

Bashkirov has a short stick for his size, giving him good hands in tight and a quick release. I’ve seen games where he can take over, and his MHL underlying stats show he drives play for his team. Could have been higher up the list if I could have seen more games.

40. Samuel Poulin / LW / L / FEB 01 / Sherbrooke / QMJHL

Well-liked by scouts. Has the size and two good years in the Q, though, I expected a few more goal notches in the draft year belt. Another area of concern is him avoiding confrontation and not taking the play to the defenders.

41. Bobby Brink / RW / R / JUL 01 / Sioux City / USHL

Enjoyed watching him play this year. A good pace, a good shot. He has a unique style in the offensive zone. Worry about the competition he faced, the size, the skating. Can he overcome all that to be an NHLer?

42. Marcus Kallionkieli / W / L / MAR 01 / Sioux City / USHL

Linemate Bobby Brink has the higher ceiling and more value in the community. However, Marcus has longer-term value, and a better chance to fit anywhere in a lineup. He does everything to a top-nine level and his best asset is his shot and finishing ability. His second, his smarts. Especially since Brink won’t be realistically available in later rounds.

43. Nikita Alexandrov / C / L / SEP 00 / Charlottetown / QMJHL

Expected a bigger year from an older birthdate and a second-year Q player. However, being a center helps. He has a good goal touch but how dynamic he can be is what keeps him from moving up a tier.

44. Oleg Zaitsev / C / L / JAN 01 / Red Deer / WHL

Quick skater, good frame. Smooth. His production doesn’t jump out at you. But his ability to pass and keep pucks flat will. If you ever saw him bunt passes flat to teammates or sauce in a phone booth you’d get why he has to be on this list and worth a pick.

45. Mikhail Abramov / RW,C / L / MAR 01 / Victoriaville / QMJHL

Caught my attention when watching Serdyuk. Abramov is a playmaking forward who will have the patience to wait out defenders or curl back. Abramov’s vision is good enough to run a powerplay in junior and there’s some chance that happens at the NHL level, as he will have more room 5v4.