Florida Panthers: After 13 Games, How Good are the Cats Exactly?

Every October, without fail, someone from the Florida Panthers says confidently, “we will not get off to a slow start this time.”

It’s a common September refrain because, also without fail, the Florida Panthers start slow in October and spend the rest of the season chasing the pack, which almost kills their postseason dreams before they even get off the ground. Words are one thing, actions are another. This October, the Panthers picked up their highest October point total, 16, since 1996 when they went unbeaten and had 20 points. Certainly, that is a welcome change, and it will be argued that the Panthers haven’t even hit their stride yet.

While picking up 16 points, the Panthers have given up the second-most goals in the league, have the third-worst team save percentage, and their captain has scored but one goal. Are the Panthers, good, bad, lucky or somewhere in between?

Last year, the Panthers were a mediocre possession team, but a fairly bad team in expected goals. This year, they are a better team in both areas, but not dominant. Four players have 10 or more points, while seven have eight or more. Last year, the Panthers had to rely on specialty teams to get anywhere, after 13 games this year they have the 16th ranked power play and seventh-ranked penalty kill while also scoring the fifth most 5-v-5 goals (31, while giving up the most at 37).

In spite of many of the structural changes Joel Quenneville and his staff have tried to make, the Panthers are still defensively weak, though is that due to defensive problems or goaltending? Sergei Bobrovsky has not been good through his first 11 games. His goals saved above average is -11.33 according to Charting Hockey, the next lowest is Martin Jones at -6.63. An optimist will say that the Panthers are winning in spite of that, a pessimist (most Panthers fans), will wonder when the team is unable to overcome that.

Bobrovsky has been really poor this season in giving up rebounds when most of his goals against go in. Certainly, the Panthers are still not a good team in net-front coverage in spite of giving up fewer shots overall, but it’s a problem that must be dealt with if the Panthers are going to start to chain together wins and consolidate their position.

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Florida’s most impressive skaters this season have not been their stars. The workhorses haven’t been necessarily Barkov, Huberdeau, Ekblad, and the like, but more like MacKenzie Weegar, Denis Malgin, Noel Acciari, and that ilk. Getting to a decent record on the back of depth is not something the Panthers are known for, and perhaps have never done like they’ve done in the first 13 games this season, but it certainly means that their stars can do more.

Health plays a major role, and certainly the Panthers haven’t been healthy to start the season, but if Aleksander Barkov starts scoring goals, Vincent Trocheck pulls himself back to his form from a few good seasons ago and the lineup begins to round out more, the ceiling for this team is definitely higher.

Even though most of the Panthers’ defense corps have taken a step in their play this season, and their team defensive game is better in terms of giving up shots, the goals against are partially on them as much as they are on the goaltending. They can still improve with net-front coverage, clearing the zone with more consistency and communication, but the underlying signs are there for a team that is going to hopefully tighten up in the defensive zone.

For once, the Panthers have backed up their words and not started slowly in October. Whether they’re a bad team getting lucky, a good team that would be even better with a save, or somewhere in between, there are indications that the Panthers are what they should have been in recent years and what their potential always showed they could be.

Joel Quenneville and his staff still have plenty to work on, and if they tighten up the details, and get a save, this team is primed for a run with 18 of their next 26 at home. Nothing in this league is a given, except seemingly for the Panthers digging an October hole they can’t get out of, but this year that has changed.

What comes next is not guaranteed either, since this team has fluctuated wildly at times from good to bad and mediocre and back in individual games, but if a decent October is combined with solid months to follow, they may actually become the team they should be and can be.