2013 NHL Playoffs Diary: Weekly Bets Part 2
By Pat McGrath
Apr 30, 2013; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Blues goalie Brian Elliott (1) makes a save on a shot by Los Angeles Kings center Jeff Carter (77) in game one of the first round of the 2013 Stanley Cup playoffs at the Scottrade Center. Mandatory Credit: Scott Rovak-USA TODAY Sports
With the 2013 NHL Playoffs entering the second round, it is time to look back at some of the picks we at the Rat Trick made last week, and it is also time to look ahead and make some picks for the second round. First lets take a look at how we did last week:
In Part 1 of our playoff gambling column, we made four picks varying in style and price. Of those four picks, two ended up being right while two missed the mark. In total, we wagered 550 hockey pucks (because who bets real dollars when you can bet made up rubber discs) and turned a 260 puck profit to increase our total to 810 hockey pucks. Here are the picks and their results (odds are courtesy of 5dimes):
Last Week:
Game 4 of St. Louis vs. Los Angeles goes to overtime (+270)
Bet: 100 hockey pucks
Outcome: lost
The Kings/Blues to go to overtime seemed like a good bet at the time especially considering the +270 odds. In retrospect, I still believe it was a good pick and gave good value. Consider these numbers courtesy of NHL.com, all six of the Kings/Blues games were decided by one goal, and the series was either tied or within one goal 98.8% of the time and a record 17 of the 47 opening round games went to overtime (36.2%). That percentage when translated to odds would give you almost exactly +270 now factor in how close the Kings/Blues series was and you begin to see that it was definitely worth taking a shot at the overtime bet.
Game 4 of Pittsburgh vs. New York Islanders over 6 goals (+110)
Bet: 200 hockey pucks
Outcome: won
This one seemed like a no-brainer. As I pointed out last week, the scores in the first three games of this series were 5-0, 4-3, 5-4. The high scoring continued in game four as ten total goals were scored with the Islanders edging out the Penguins 6-4.
Anaheim beats Detroit in 6 games (+290)
Bet: 100 hockey pucks
Outcome: lost
Well I was way off the mark with this one.
LA Kings’ Jeff Carter over 3 shots on goal in game 4 (+160)
Bet: 150 hockey pucks
Outcome: win
When the first thing you look at in a box score is Jeff Carter’s shot total, you know you have a gambling problem. He had four shots by the way.
Second Round Bets:
May 14, 2013; Los Angeles, CA, USA; San Jose Sharks goalie Antti Niemi (31) makes a save in the third period of game one of the second round of the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs against the Los Angeles Kings at Staples Center. King won 2-0. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
Looking over the available bets, not much jumped out so this week we only have two bets. The first thing you learn if you hope to achieve any success gambling is that if you do not feel good about a bet you probably most definitely should not make the bet. Discretion is the better part of valor or something like that.
Thursday home goals scored over away goals scored (-140)
I have no idea if this is a good bet, and I usually hate taking bets much worse than -110 (which if you are not familiar means you bet 110 dollars to win 100 dollars, so in this case in order to win 100 dollars you have to bet 140) but what the heck, my pockets are bulging with hockey pucks, I’m still riding the high from last week, and this bet looks like some good fun, and that’s what it’s really all about right? Anyway, tonight’s games include NYR at Boston and San Jose at Los Angeles. The Kings only lost three times at home during last years cup run (coincidently they only lost once on the road but who’s counting) and are undefeated at the Staples Center in this year’s playoffs. I am counting on the Kings to continue their strong play at home and the Bruins to ride the wave of their improbable comeback in their game 7 victory over the Leafs.
The Bet: 140 hockey pucks
Sharks Win Series (+205)
This one is tough. The Sharks just swept the #3 seed Canucks while the Kings took care of the Blues in six games. The Kings took game one of this series at home which I think the Sharks can easily overcome. Here is the argument for the Sharks, they will win their games at home in the awesome environment of the Shark Tank and will only have to steal one in LA. But wait, didn’t I just talk about how good the Kings are at home? And the Kings seem to have a special gear they save for the playoffs while the Sharks have been historically terrible. Did I just talk myself out of this bet? No…the Sharks are the pick here especially at +205… oh yea and Jonathan Quick is heating up… s**t why am I taking the Sharks again? Regardless, ONWARDS AND UPWARDS, Lets Go SHARKS!!!
The Bet: 250 hockey pucks because when your not sure, just go all in.